海南大学学报(社会科学版)

面对复杂严峻的国内外形势，提升产业链韧性与安全水平成为我国经济工作的重点。自2018年以来，中美贸易摩擦不断升级，涉及关税加征、科技限制、供应链重构等多重挑战。贸易摩擦对我国产业链韧性产生了显著影响。本文构建包含上下游企业相互关联的产业链模型，从理论层面研究贸易摩擦对产业链韧性的影响，并通过手工收集整理方式得到2015—2022年中国62条产业链微观企业数据，构建产业链韧性具体指标，从实证角度研究中美贸易摩擦的关税冲击对我国产业链韧性的影响。研究发现，贸易摩擦的关税冲击显著削弱了我国产业链韧性，但当产业链具有较高长度、属于高技术产业、或位于先进制造集群地区时，表现出更强韧性，且该结论在经过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、变换核心指标计算方法等一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制研究表明，中美贸易摩擦的关税冲击主要通过提高企业的生产成本与降低生产匹配效率，进而削弱我国产业链韧性。本文的研究为理解中美贸易摩擦，特别是关税冲击，对全球价值链下中国产业链韧性的影响提供了重要的实证依据和政策启示。

In the face of the complex and severe domestic and international situations, enhancing the resilience and security level of industrial chains has become the focus of China's economic work. Since 2018, ChinaUS trade frictions have continuously escalated, involving the multiple challenges such as tariff increases, technological restrictions, and supply chain restructuring. Trade frictions have a significant impact on the resilience of China's industrial chains. While constructing an industrial chain model that includes the interrelated upstream and downstream enterprises, this paper conducts a theoretical study of the impact of trade frictions on the industrial chain resilience. With the micro-enterprise data of 62 Chinese industrial chains from 2015 to 2022 through the manual collection, the concrete indicators of industrial chain resilience are constructed, and are utilized to empirically investigate the impact of tariff shocks from China-US trade frictions on the resilience of China's industrial chains. It is found that tariff shocks from trade frictions significantly weaken the resilience of China's industrial chains. However, they exhibit stronger resilience when industrial chains have greater length, belong to the high-tech industries, or are located in the advanced manufacturing cluster areas. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests, including the parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and changes of core-indicator calculation method. Mechanism research shows that tariff shocks from China-US trade frictions weaken the resilience of China's industrial chains mainly by increasing the enterprises' production costs and reducing production matching efficiency. Current research provides the important empirical evidence and policy implications for understanding the impact of China-US trade frictions, especially tariff shocks, on the resilience of China's industrial chains under the global value chain.