海南大学学报(社会科学版)

本文以我国跨境电子商务综合试验区作为准自然实验，基于2012—2019年282个地级市面板数据，采用多期双重差分法评估了该综试区政策对地区产业结构升级的影响效果，并对其作用路径进行研究。结论表明：第一，跨境电商综试区政策推动了地区产业结构升级，该结论在多种稳健性检验中仍然成立；第二，中西部地区综试区政策对产业结构高级化的提升有显著促进作用，而东部地区综试区政策对产业结构高级化的促进作用不显著。无论对东部还是中西部，综试区均能促进产业结构合理化，其中对中西部地区的促进作用更大；第三，非国有经济占比提高、政府对市场的干预减少、生产性服务业集聚是跨境电商综试区政策推动产业结构升级的有效实现路径。

With the integrated pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce in China as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper utilizes the panel data for 282 prefecture-level cities from 2012 to 2019 to evaluate the impact of the policies for the integrated pilot zones on the upgrading of regional industrial structure, and study their effect pathways by means of the multiphase DID method. Firstly, the policies for these zones promote the upgrading of regional industrial structure, and this conclusion is still valid in various robustness tests. Secondly,the policies for the pilot zones in the central and western regions have the significant promoting effect on the advancement of the regional industrial structure while those in the eastern regions show no significant effect.The integrated pilot zones can promote the rationalization of industrial structure among the eastern, central and western regions, and the promoting effect is more significant in the central and western regions. Finally,the increase in the proportion of non-state-owned economy, the decrease in the government intervention into the market, and the agglomeration of producer services are the effective pathways for the policies in the integrated pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce to promote the upgrading of industrial structure.